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Conventional wisdom is that the electorate will consist mainly of progressives.

If that’s true, it certainly benefits Jumaane and others.

Next Tuesday, New York City voters will cast their ballots for one of 17 candidates for public advocate in a citywide special election.

It’s not that most city residents were for HQ2, but if the anti-Amazon voters are split over 10 or 12 candidates, the voters who are disappointed that Amazon withdrew could go for Councilmember Eric Ulrich. If an outside independent expenditure group runs run-of-the-mill Republican ads as has been reported, that may actually drive up progressive turnout.

Whoever wins will likely win with a small margin, so every vote counts.

Lupe Todd-Medina: The biggest factor is going to be voter turnout – and who turns out.

Also what effect does a New York Times endorsement have?

At a minimum, it will likely influence both the Upper West and Upper East Side, two engaged neighborhoods where many take cues from NYT editorials and who are likely to vote.

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